Showers Possible but No Tropical Storm Likely Saturday and Sunday

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Although significant weather impacts are not expected from Tropical Storm Jerry, some extreme outer bands could bring one or two scattered showers, and an increase in moisture to the region.  Today’s winds will be south-southeasterly at around 10 miles per hour with daytime high temperatures reaching the low 90s.

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the weekend due to a northerly swell, and the presence of Tropical Storm Jerry to the north of the area. Seas to 14 feet are expected with south-southeast winds between 5-15 knots (7-17 miles per hour). Small craft advisories are in effect for the Atlantic, offshore, and coastal waters and passages. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for St. Thomas and St. John through early Sunday. There is a moderate to high risk of rip currents for the local beaches.

IN THE TROPICS
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thundershowers. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 miles per hour, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles this weekend. There is a 40% chance of development over the next two days, and a 50% percent chance of development through the next five days.

Also, a tropical wave is forecast to roll off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern Tropical Atlantic. There is a 30 percent chance of development over the next two days, and a 90% chance of development through five days.

Tropical Storm Jerry weakened overnight while passing well north of the Virgin Islands.  The tropical storm will have no significant impact on weather conditions across the Virgin Islands this weekend.

Sunrise: 6:09 a.m.
Sunset: 6:17 p.m.

FROM THE 3D MANDAHL WEATHER STATION
Friday’s high temperature: 88 degrees at 10:48 a.m.
Friday’s low temperature: 78 degrees at 4:47 a.m.
Peak wind gust: 12 miles per hour at 10:37 a.m.
24-hour rainfall: 0.16 inches
Monthly rainfall: 2.08 inches

Original Source: https://stjohnsource.com/2019/09/21/showers-possible-but-no-tropical-storm-likely-saturday-and-sunday/