Danny Expected to Weaken to a Tropical Depression as it Passes the USVI


At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near Latitude 15.8 degrees north, longitude 56.0 degrees west, 95 eat southeast of leeward Islands. Danny is moving toward the west near 15 miles per hour and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Monday.

On the forecast track, the center of Danny is expected to be near the Leeward Islands tonight or Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 miles per hour with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands through Monday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center will issue an intermediate advisory at 8 a.m. and a complete advisory at 11 a.m.

USVI Forecast

According to the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office at San Juan, based on latest forecast the official intensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken to a Tropical Depression in 36 to 48 hours as it passes near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Based on its current track, the tropical depression, at its closest point, is expected brush the southwest edge of the St. Croix at approximately midnight on Monday with maximum sustained winds of 30 to 35 miles per hour. Rainfall associated with the outer bands of this system is expected begin to affect the entire territory on Monday afternoon, and rainfall will become more frequent as the day progresses. The bulk of rain is forecasted to occur overnight into Tuesday morning, according to Ernesto Rodriquez, NWS meteorologist and oceanographer.

“We expect good rainfall with this system,” Rodriquez said. “You will see rain bands starting on Monday afternoon and then more frequently Monday night, and moving out of the USVI on Tuesday afternoon.”

The system is expected to produce accumulated rainfall amounts 1 to 3 inches of rain with up to 4 inches in isolated areas.

Additional watches or warnings could be required for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later this morning if Danny does not weaken as quickly as forecast or if the forecast track is not shifted farther south on subsequent advisories.

VITEMA is encouraging to the community to continue to closely monitor this system.